Inflation Starting to Stir
Feb 2021 Issue
In This Issue: Vaccination rates are the key to maintaining economic momentum Government support payments have helped create a surge in household savings Pent –up consumer demand could create inflationary pressures Global supply chains leading to production challenges for some industries COVID-19 has had the world in its grip for…
Read moreLessons From Market History: Price Does Matter
Feb 2021 Issue
In This Issue: Looking at the premium of US technology stocks Drawing lessons from market history Great companies do not always make great investments The price you pay for an investment matters With nearly 10 months of experiencing the duress of COVID-19, the global economy continues to adjust and adapt…
Read moreTaking Stock of the Economy’s Recovery
Jul 2020 Issue
In this issue: Measuring the economic rebound Fears of a second wave Global efforts underway for a COVID-19 vaccine Global governments continue to support their economies with stimulus Any economic downturn is a challenge even under the most normal of circumstances. But throw a global pandemic into the mix and…
Read moreCOVID-19: Paving an Uneven Path to Recovery
Apr 2020 Issue
In this issue Global economy gripped in a historic downturn World’s first “forced recession” Turning the corner and “flattening the curve” Governments have gone “all in” with efforts to stabilize the economy Equity markets are trying to price in the extent of the ultimate decline in corporate profits As 175…
Read moreCOVID-19: Charting A Path Forward
Apr 2020 Issue
In this issue Current economic & market conditions Using market history as a guide to this crisis. What a recovery may look like What & when to buy On Thursday, April 02nd, 2020 Pacifica Partners hosted their first Live Webinar regarding the overview of our investment strategy as the global…
Read moreThe Futility of Forecasting
Feb 2020 Issue
In this issue Market forecasts do not have a great record Markets are impacted by too many variables to be able to lend themselves to consistent prediction S&P 500 companies set to payout over $500 billion in dividends in 2020 Importance of investor psychology & its unpredictability One of the…
Read moreUS Defense Industry: Global Conflict Lifting Profits
Oct 2019 Issue
In this issue Post Cold War peace dividend came and went US debt is a constraint on its military capacity America’s military strategy has shifted back towards a “great powers” conflict scenario US defense sector is a major contributor to the economy and offers several world class companies to investors…
Read moreThe Strong Economy-Rate Cut Paradox
Jul 2019 Issue
In this issue Markets demanding an interest rate cut as insurance to ward off effects of a slowing global economy Federal Reserve feeling pressure to act from both financial markets and Trump Slowdown in corporate earnings being offset by rising valuations (PE multiples) One of the best words to describe…
Read moreAssessing the Yield Curve’s Economic Forecast
Apr 2019 Issue
In This Issue What is the yield curve and why are markets focused on it? Financial stress conditions have eased and remain at multi-year lows Earnings estimates have been reduced and some analysts are looking for an earnings recession One of the central topics at the forefront of the markets’…
Read moreGlobal Economy in Need of a European Assist
Feb 2019 Issue
Over the last 20 years, a disconcerting trend of slowing rates of economic growth has taken root in the economies of the developed world nations. What was once considered to be a temporary aberration has become accepted as normal as the developed world has seen a long-term erosion in economic…
Read moreRising Interest Rates: A Bumpy Road Towards “Neutral”
Oct 2018 Issue
It has been well over a decade since investors have had to contend with a sustained upturn in interest rates. Even though the US began its march towards the normalization of interest rates almost three years ago from the emergency lows reached during the last recession, investors still seem to…
Read moreMarkets Distracted By the Trump Phenomenon
Jul 2018 Issue
It is difficult to think of a US President who has dominated the market’s psyche the way Donald Trump has. The sugar high of the Trump tax cut has been absorbed by the market and is now almost forgotten. Investors can certainly be excused for feeling anxious as their optimism…
Read moreTrade Friction & Sliding Markets
Apr 2018 Issue
Financial markets experienced some of the lowest volatility on record in 2017. The lack of gyrations in the market led some to call 2017 “boring” and others to complain that lack of volatility had reduced opportunities to buy good quality equities at attractive prices. However, 2018 is another story as…
Read moreWeighing the Impact of the Trump Tax Cuts
Jan 2018 Issue
As 2017 wound down, the Trump Administration was seeking out a large legislative win to point to. They certainly got one with the last-minute passage of its tax cut bill for both corporations and individuals. As the measure was signed into law by President Trump shortly before Christmas, the debate…
Read moreWeighing Stronger Global Growth and Higher Interest Rates
Oct 2017 Issue
As the current economic expansion edges closer to the decade mark, there seems to be a peculiar state of affairs developing in the financial markets. Specifically, investors seem to have gone from panicking at the mere thought of higher interest rates to a “What? Me Worry?” attitude. Some look at…
Read moreGridlock Not Sidetracking Economy—So Far
Jul 2017 Issue
With the first half of 2017 out of the way, investors are wrestling with mixed signals from the financial markets. Some fatigue seems to be setting in due to the state of politics in the US, Europe, and the leading economies of Latin America. In Asia, while there has been…
Read moreThe Crude Reality of OPEC’S Cartel
Apr 2017 Issue
A little over a decade ago, some investors began to question the relevance of the US Federal Reserve. Given the reputation that the US central bank had carved out for itself since the 1980s, this was a stunning turn of events for many. Eventually, the Federal Reserve took notice of…
Read moreTesting Trumponomics Against the Realities of the Federal Reserve
Jan 2017 Issue
As we have commented in prior first quarter commentaries, we are somewhat puzzled at the amount of energy Wall Street and the financial media expend into making annual predictions each January. This time is no different. Seldom do the predictions pan out and most major political, economic and geopolitical events…
Read moreDEBT: The Economic Challenge for the Next President
Oct 2016 Issue
Shortly after winning the 1992 presidential election, some commentators said that the problems facing the country were so large that Bill Clinton might end up wishing he had lost. At the time, the US was facing a budget deficit of $450 billion which was about 4.5% of GDP and an…
Read morePush for More Stimulus Ignores Risks of Japan’s Experience
Oct 2016 Issue
This September has been an eventful month for China. Apart from defending its assertion to vast areas of the South China Sea, it also hosted world leaders at the G20 Summit to discuss ways to raise global economic growth rates. All of the political leaders agreed that they needed to…
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