The Futility of Forecasting
Feb 2020 Issue
In this issue Market forecasts do not have a great record Markets are impacted by too many variables to be able to lend themselves to consistent prediction S&P 500 companies set to payout over $500 billion in dividends in 2020 Importance of investor psychology & its unpredictability One of the…
Read moreUS Defense Industry: Global Conflict Lifting Profits
Oct 2019 Issue
In this issue Post Cold War peace dividend came and went US debt is a constraint on its military capacity America’s military strategy has shifted back towards a “great powers” conflict scenario US defense sector is a major contributor to the economy and offers several world class companies to investors…
Read moreThe Strong Economy-Rate Cut Paradox
Jul 2019 Issue
In this issue Markets demanding an interest rate cut as insurance to ward off effects of a slowing global economy Federal Reserve feeling pressure to act from both financial markets and Trump Slowdown in corporate earnings being offset by rising valuations (PE multiples) One of the best words to describe…
Read moreAssessing the Yield Curve’s Economic Forecast
Apr 2019 Issue
In This Issue What is the yield curve and why are markets focused on it? Financial stress conditions have eased and remain at multi-year lows Earnings estimates have been reduced and some analysts are looking for an earnings recession One of the central topics at the forefront of the markets’…
Read moreGlobal Economy in Need of a European Assist
Feb 2019 Issue
Over the last 20 years, a disconcerting trend of slowing rates of economic growth has taken root in the economies of the developed world nations. What was once considered to be a temporary aberration has become accepted as normal as the developed world has seen a long-term erosion in economic…
Read moreRising Interest Rates: A Bumpy Road Towards “Neutral”
Oct 2018 Issue
It has been well over a decade since investors have had to contend with a sustained upturn in interest rates. Even though the US began its march towards the normalization of interest rates almost three years ago from the emergency lows reached during the last recession, investors still seem to…
Read moreMarkets Distracted By the Trump Phenomenon
Jul 2018 Issue
It is difficult to think of a US President who has dominated the market’s psyche the way Donald Trump has. The sugar high of the Trump tax cut has been absorbed by the market and is now almost forgotten. Investors can certainly be excused for feeling anxious as their optimism…
Read moreTrade Friction & Sliding Markets
Apr 2018 Issue
Financial markets experienced some of the lowest volatility on record in 2017. The lack of gyrations in the market led some to call 2017 “boring” and others to complain that lack of volatility had reduced opportunities to buy good quality equities at attractive prices. However, 2018 is another story as…
Read moreWeighing the Impact of the Trump Tax Cuts
Jan 2018 Issue
As 2017 wound down, the Trump Administration was seeking out a large legislative win to point to. They certainly got one with the last-minute passage of its tax cut bill for both corporations and individuals. As the measure was signed into law by President Trump shortly before Christmas, the debate…
Read moreWeighing Stronger Global Growth and Higher Interest Rates
Oct 2017 Issue
As the current economic expansion edges closer to the decade mark, there seems to be a peculiar state of affairs developing in the financial markets. Specifically, investors seem to have gone from panicking at the mere thought of higher interest rates to a “What? Me Worry?” attitude. Some look at…
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