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The Strong Economy-Rate Cut Paradox

In This Issue: Markets demanding an interest rate cut as insurance to ward off effects of a slowing global economyFederal Reserve feeling pressure to act from both financial markets and TrumpSlowdown in corporate earnings being offset by rising valuations (PE multiples) One of the best words to describe the current state of affairs in the…

Assessing the Yield Curve’s Economic Forecast

In This Issue What is the yield curve and why are markets focused on it? Financial stress conditions have eased and remain at multi-year lows Earnings estimates have been reduced and some analysts are looking for an earnings recession One of the central topics at the forefront of the markets’ collective attention is the yield…

Global Economy in Need of a European Assist

Over the last 20 years, a disconcerting trend of slowing rates of economic growth has taken root in the economies of the developed world nations. What was once considered to be a temporary aberration has become accepted as normal as the developed world has seen a long-term erosion in economic growth (GDP) rates. Whereas 3%…

Rising Interest Rates: A Bumpy Road Towards “Neutral”

It has been well over a decade since investors have had to contend with a sustained upturn in interest rates. Even though the US began its march towards the normalization of interest rates almost three years ago from the emergency lows reached during the last recession, investors still seem to have been caught off guard.…

Markets Distracted By the Trump Phenomenon

It is difficult to think of a US President who has dominated the market’s psyche the way Donald Trump has. The sugar high of the Trump tax cut has been absorbed by the market and is now almost forgotten. Investors can certainly be excused for feeling anxious as their optimism has been replaced by fears…

Trade Friction & Sliding Markets

Financial markets experienced some of the lowest volatility on record in 2017. The lack of gyrations in the market led some to call 2017 “boring” and others to complain that lack of volatility had reduced opportunities to buy good quality equities at attractive prices. However, 2018 is another story as last year’s tranquility has been…

Weighing the Impact of the Trump Tax Cuts

As 2017 wound down, the Trump Administration was seeking out a large legislative win to point to. They certainly got one with the last-minute passage of its tax cut bill for both corporations and individuals. As the measure was signed into law by President Trump shortly before Christmas, the debate began as to just what…

Weighing Stronger Global Growth and Higher Interest Rates

As the current economic expansion edges closer to the decade mark, there seems to be a peculiar state of affairs developing in the financial markets. Specifically, investors seem to have gone from panicking at the mere thought of higher interest rates to a “What? Me Worry?” attitude. Some look at the lack of concern as…

Gridlock Not Sidetracking Economy—So Far

With the first half of 2017 out of the way, investors are wrestling with mixed signals from the financial markets. Some fatigue seems to be setting in due to the state of politics in the US, Europe, and the leading economies of Latin America. In Asia, while there has been a steady build of concerns…

The Crude Reality of OPEC’S Cartel

A little over a decade ago, some investors began to question the relevance of the US Federal Reserve. Given the reputation that the US central bank had carved out for itself since the 1980s, this was a stunning turn of events for many. Eventually, the Federal Reserve took notice of this and was forced to…
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