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COVID-19: Paving an Uneven Path to Recovery

In this issue Global economy gripped in a historic downturn World’s first “forced recession” Turning the corner and “flattening the curve” Governments have gone “all in” with efforts to stabilize the economy Equity markets are trying to price in the extent of the ultimate decline in corporate profits As 175 countries and territories battle over…

COVID-19: Charting A Path Forward

In this issue Current economic & market conditionsUsing market history as a guide to this crisis.What a recovery may look likeWhat & when to buy On Thursday, April 02nd, 2020 Pacifica Partners hosted their first Live Webinar regarding the overview of our investment strategy as the global economy enters a recession caused by the COVID-19…

The Futility of Forecasting

In this issue Market forecasts do not have a great recordMarkets are impacted by too many variables to be able to lend themselves to consistent predictionS&P 500 companies set to payout over $500 billion in dividends in 2020Importance of investor psychology & its unpredictability One of the age-old traditions of the investment industry is to…

US Defense Industry: Global Conflict Lifting Profits

In this issue Post Cold War peace dividend came and wentUS debt is a constraint on its military capacityAmerica’s military strategy has shifted back towards a “great powers” conflict scenarioUS defense sector is a major contributor to the economy and offers several world class companies to investors When the Berlin Wall fell nearly 30 years…

The Strong Economy-Rate Cut Paradox

In this issue Markets demanding an interest rate cut as insurance to ward off effects of a slowing global economyFederal Reserve feeling pressure to act from both financial markets and TrumpSlowdown in corporate earnings being offset by rising valuations (PE multiples) One of the best words to describe the current state of affairs in the…

Assessing the Yield Curve’s Economic Forecast

In this issue What is the yield curve and why are markets focused on it? Financial stress conditions have eased and remain at multi-year lows Earnings estimates have been reduced and some analysts are looking for an earnings recession One of the central topics at the forefront of the markets’ collective attention is the yield…

Global Economy in Need of a European Assist

Over the last 20 years, a disconcerting trend of slowing rates of economic growth has taken root in the economies of the developed world nations. What was once considered to be a temporary aberration has become accepted as normal as the developed world has seen a long-term erosion in economic growth (GDP) rates. Whereas 3%…

Rising Interest Rates: A Bumpy Road Towards “Neutral”

It has been well over a decade since investors have had to contend with a sustained upturn in interest rates. Even though the US began its march towards the normalization of interest rates almost three years ago from the emergency lows reached during the last recession, investors still seem to have been caught off guard.…

Markets Distracted By the Trump Phenomenon

It is difficult to think of a US President who has dominated the market’s psyche the way Donald Trump has. The sugar high of the Trump tax cut has been absorbed by the market and is now almost forgotten. Investors can certainly be excused for feeling anxious as their optimism has been replaced by fears…

Trade Friction & Sliding Markets

Financial markets experienced some of the lowest volatility on record in 2017. The lack of gyrations in the market led some to call 2017 “boring” and others to complain that lack of volatility had reduced opportunities to buy good quality equities at attractive prices. However, 2018 is another story as last year’s tranquility has been…
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