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Canadian Real-Estate-Bubble Chart Book





For the past three years the Canadian Finance Minister,<br /> Jim Flaherty, and the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, have<br /> preached caution to Canadian households on the risks of excessive debt<br /> accumulation. Neither have gone so far as to declare an asset valuation<br /> “bubble” within the Canadian real estate market.







Navigating a Sea of Opportunity



Canadian Real-Estate-Bubble Chart
Book – July 2012

Note:
A December 2012 update of this report is now available (click here)


 

The
following report is our latest
update of trends and valuations of the Canadian real estate
market.  The
34 charts and two tables included below comprise an exhaustive
look at
the valuation drivers of Canadian real estate.  This summary
has been
generated solely for educational purposes and we would like to
thank Teranet and National Bank, Statistics Canada, Standard
&
Poors, UBC Sauder School of Business – Center for Urban Economics and
Real
Estate, and Google
for making numerous data elements and housing price indices available
for generating the following summaries.  For definitions of
the data
used in this summary please visit the following sites:




UBC
Center for Urban
Economics and Real Estate

Teranet – National Bank Home
Price Index TM

Statistics Canada for access
to their CANSIM database


S&P Case-Shiller Home
Price Indices



Google
Trends

We
welcome feedback,  email realestate@pacificapartners.com
or tweet: @pacifica_prtnrs


Summary

For
the past three years the Canadian
Finance Minister, Jim
Flaherty, and the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, have
preached caution to Canadian households on the risks
of excessive debt accumulation.  Neither have gone so
far as
to declare an asset valuation “bubble” within the Canadian real estate
market.  However, both Minister Flaherty and Governor Carney
have both addressed
the issue publicly on a relatively frequent basis. 
Included below is a small sampling of their
publicly
made warnings from December 2010 to June 2012.  Included in
these
statements is
a recent one from June 21st in which Governor Carney addressed
excessive
mortgage related  lending
as “the number one…  domestic risk to the Canadian economy”:

“Our
parents were more inclined to pay off that mortgage as soon as
possible, and some Canadians are not as inclined to do that now…I
encourage them to do it.””

– Jim
Flaherty, Dec
13, 2010
; Bloomberg


“…  we want to caution Canadians [that] we will not
facilitate excessive
debt assumption by some Canadians at very low interest rates because
that will lead to trouble in the medium and longer term.”

– Jim
Flaherty, Jan
17, 2011
; lfpress

“The
risk is that expectations become extrapolative, prompting the classic
market emotions of fear and greed – greed among speculators and
investors, and fear among households that getting a foot on the
property ladder is a now-or-never proposition,”


Mark Carney, Jun 16, 2011;
The
Globe and Mail

“Canadians,
particularly with respect to residential mortgages, should be mindful
that interest rates are historically low right now.  They’re
not going
to stay there forever,”

– Jim
Flaherty, Nov
25, 2011
Reuters


 “We
have been cautioning Canadians for some time that they need to be
prepared to have higher interest rates in the future and be aware of
the affordability issue that may create.”

– Jim
Flaherty, Jan
17, 2012
; thestar.com

 “These
measures [tightening government-insured mortgage lending standards]
reduce the number one
risk,
domestic risk to the Canadian economy,”


– Mark Carney, Jun 21,
2012
; Reuters

    Real estate looking riskyFortunately
    for indebted Canadian households, interest rates have yet to
    return to pre-recession levels as was hypothesized by many. 
    In fact, the exact opposite has occurred with lending rates
    dropping as global economic events, dominated by the European Debt
    Crisis, unfold.  These events have been partly responsible for
    the
    Bank of Canada’s (BOC’s) decision to pause on interest rate
    hikes.  Adding to the BOC’s policy decision
    has been the effects on interest rates from investors shifting
    capital from equity markets and into bonds. 


    How
    does all of this activity impact lending rates?

     The increased demand for
    bonds that we have witnessed has
    caused bond
    prices to surge higher.  When bond prices rise in value the
    result
    is
    falling bond yields, the key driver
    of lending rates, and in particular rates on fixed rate
    mortgages.  To
    understand the magnitude of falling Government bond yields, inflation
    adjusted bond yields on many government bonds are now below
    zero. 
    In other words, income payments on some government bonds are now
    insufficient to overcome the loss in purchasing power that results from
    inflation.  Simply put, when it comes to borrowing “money is
    cheap
    “.


    From equities into bonds:  The
    catalyst for the exodus from equity markets into bonds has been
    twofold.  Firstly,
    investors fearing continued volatility of global equity markets have
    sent them fleeing to the safety of the bond market.  Secondly,
    signs of
    inflation that were brought about by the US Federal Reserve’s
    Quantitative Easing program have dissipated.  In turn, the
    world is
    now facing the sobering possibility that we are
    headed into a
    deflationary environment in which long bonds are expected to outperform
    other assets.


    Household Debt stalling:  A
    noteworthy observation is that despite falling
    bond yields and the resulting mortgage wars between
    Canadian lenders, debt accumulation by Canadian consumers has not grown
    significantly.  Canadian household debt, both mortgage and
    personal debt, have
    stalled at the 90% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) mark for a number of
    quarters (see Chart 2
    below).  Furthermore, growth in Canadian personal
    debt (excluding mortgages) has also
    fallen, and is now growing at the lowest rate in more than a decade
    (see Chart 1
    below).  If this trend continues, Canadian consumer
    credit may begin contracting.  This contraction would be
    despite
    the fact that as mentioned earlier, borrowing rates
    have fallen and borrowed money is now “cheap”. 

    This observed slow-down of debt
    accumulation has occurred even before a significant change to mortgage
    lending rules took effect on July 9th, 2012.  The rule change
    will
    likely act to further slow the accumulation of mortgage debt as
    well.  As a
    result, we believe
    that the
    Canadian consumer has hit a point of “debt exhaustion” in
    which debt
    accumulation stalls not necessarily due to restrictive credit or higher
    borrowing
    costs, but due to the accumulation of multiple factors including
    economic fears, sentiment, stubbornly high unemployment, stagnant wage
    growth, as well as debt servicing limitations.

    Why
    is debt so important to Canadian Real Estate?
     As
    the charts below
    demonstrate, the decade long bull market in Canadian Real Estate has
    not been the result of “healthy drivers” such as  income
    growth, growth of the economy,
    nor is it the result of housing scarcity.  In fact,
    housing
    price growth has outpaced wage growth (see Chart
    6
    below) and  GDP growth
    (see Chart 5
    below).  In addition, most major Canadian cities are
    significantly over-supplied
    (see Chart 3
    below).  Instead,
    housing price appreciation has been made
    possible in large
    part due to rampant debt accumulation, both mortgage and personal
    credit
    (see Chart
    5

    below).  Thus a lack of future debt accumulation by households
    implies that the key driver of past real estate performance may no
    longer be available to stimulate real estate going forward.


    Shifting
    sentiment:

     As
    with all bull markets, changes in sentiment are a key indication of
    whether an inflection point has been reached.  Our
    Real Estate Sentiment Indicator (see Table
    1

    below) shows that the
    six cities with the highest search volume
    proportions for
    the combined terms of “Housing Bubble” and “Real Estate Bubble” are now
    all Canadian
    .  We interpret this as a noteworthy
    sentiment shift
    within these real estate markets.  Effectively, the locals of
    each
    of the indicated cities are
    now searching for bearish real estate terms in proportionally
    more
    volume
    than other topics when compared to other cities around the
    world.  The increase in use of these search terms indicates a
    potential change in consumer sentiment which may then extend to a pause
    in real estate’s upward price momentum.

    How
    overvalued are Canadian Real Estate markets?

    We have attempted to quantify the
    necessary price drops to bring specific real estate back to historical
    average multiples of discounted rental income.  The findings
    of Table 2 below indicate a
    required 30% to 40% correction in home
    prices in some major Canadian markets to achieve a return to long run
    averages.  

    Our
    outlook on Canadian real-estate remains negative.  

    An
    update to this Chartbook will be published in November 2012.

    Chart
    summaries are provided below and are divided into the following
    six categories:

    Section A
    (table 1 & 2 charts 1 to
    4):
    Canadian
    Real Estate Sentiment
    ,  Canadian Consumer Credit
    Growth – NEW,
    Household Debt as a Percentage of GDP, Real Estate Supply &
    Demand – NEW,
    Canadian Real Estate Valuation and Correction Table – NEW

    Section
    B
    (charts 5 through 10):
    Canadian Real Estate Market Trends, Valuations, and Drivers of Home
    Prices

    Section
    C
    (charts 11 through 18):
    Canadian Real Estate Unemployment, Vacancy Rates, and Home Price Growth
    in Major Canadian Cities

    Section
    D
    (charts 19 through 22):
    Canadian and US Real Estate versus Stock Markets (TSX and S&P
    500)

    Section
    E
    (charts 23 through 26):
    US Housing Price Performance vs.  Major Canadian Cities

    Section
    F
    (charts 27 through 33):
    Home Price and Sales Pair Volume Change for Major Canadian Cities
     


     

    Section A (Tablea 1 & 2 and Charts 1 to 4):
    Canadian Real Estate Sentiment, Wage Growth, and Housing Supply


     

    Table 1)
    Housing Bubble Sentiment
    Indicator 

    Canadian
    Real Estate bulls have continued to cite the fact that real estate
    valuations have appeared “expensive” for years, yet, the momentum
    has continued to take prices higher.  Real estate bears, on
    the other
    hand, claim that home prices have been so stretched from fundamental
    valuations that past price momentum is irrelevant.  As with
    all asset classes, a change to investor sentiment regardless
    of the
    catalyst that triggers the change (eg. rising interest rates,
    government policy, extreme valuations, etc.) will dictate future real
    estate returns.  

    To attempt to monitor real estate sentiment analytically, we examine
    the proportion of
    Google searches for the combined terms “housing
    bubble
    ” and “real
    estate bubble
    “, summarized by the originating city of the
    searches.  The table below displays the top ten cities
    globally in which the term “housing bubble”  or “real estate bubble
    was searched in each year
    from 2004 to 2012.  The
    six highest proportion of city-sourced searches for
    “housing bubble” and “real estate bubble” arise from Canadian cities,
    namely Vancouver, Ottawa,
    Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal. 
    The
    progression of the
    trend is ominous
    as California cities dominated much of the top searches until 2009,
    after which Canadian and Australian cities began to emerge.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this table
    .  

     


     

    Chart 1)
    Canadian Consumer Credit Growth Rates  
    – NEW

    Despite
    falling interest rates,
    Canadian consumer credit growth has slowed to the lowest levels in more
    than 12 years.  This observation is despite the fact that real
    bond yields, or inflation adjusted yields, have dropped
    significantly.  The axis on the right in red tracks 3
    to 5
    year real
    Canadian government bond yields which are now below zero.  In
    other words, interest income on these bonds are no longer sufficient to
    overcome lost purchasing power from the effects of inflation. 
    Should consumer and mortgage credit begin to contract then this
    will serve as a major headwind to future real estate appreciation.
     

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Chart 2)
    Canadian household credit
    as a percentage of nominal GDP

    Canadian
    household credit, both consumer credit and residential
    mortgage credit, has increased sharply over the last decade. 
    Total
    credit as a percentage of nominal GDP increased from under 60% during
    the third quarter of 2001, to the current levels
    of 90%.  The
    surge in Canadian
    household debt is predominantly comprised of residential mortgage
    credit as can be observed from the chart below.  Canadian
    consumer debt
    accumulation appears to have been exhausted and is currently in a stall
    state of approximately 90% of GDP.  Lack of debt accumulation
    is a headwind for further real estate price appreciation.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Chart 3)
    Real Estate Supply and
    Demand Growth: Vancouver,
    Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Toronto,
    Montreal, Halifax – NEW

    In
    all major Canadian housing markets housing capacity
    growth has exceeded population increases between 2001 and May
    2012.  Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Montreal and Halifax are
    what we
    would
    consider to be “severely overbuilt” with excess housing capacity
    of 50% or more than population growth over the same
    period. 
    Vancouver, Toronto, and Winnipeg, are “overbuilt” with excess
    housing capacity 20% more than population growth over the examined
    period. 

    Housing capacity is defined
    as the number of individuals that can be reasonably housed in new
    housing units, whether or not a new housing unit sits unoccupied,
    under-occupied, or over-occupied.  Assumptions made may be
    more appropriate for some markets over others.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Chart 4)
    Canadian home prices over
    discounted rent valuation: Vancouver,
    Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, and
    Montreal

    In
    theory, residential real estate prices should equal the discounted
    sum of future rental income.  As a result, we have attempted
    to estimate
    fair values for residential real estate in major cities by comparing
    actual prices to theoretical discounted prices (valuation
    ratio).  In theory, this ratio
    should equal one and deviations from this value should regress back to
    the value one over time.  Note, discounted cash flow
    calculations are highly volatile
    and dependent on underlying model assumptions. 
    However based
    off of this
    methodology, Canadian real estate appears extremely expensive in most
    major markets.  Canadian real
    estate only appears somewhat reasonably priced if the assumption that
    current
    emergency low interest rates continue indefinitely into the
    future.  Any increase
    in interest rates to even pre recession levels (which were also
    historically low) causes Canadian real estate as a whole to appear
    grossly overvalued.

    Table
    2 below attempts to quantify the degree of price correction
    necessary to return the valuation ratio  in these
    five real
    estate markets back to the historical average valuation ratio.
     

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Table 2)
    Canadian home prices over
    discounted rent valuation: Vancouver,
    Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, and
    Montreal 

    – NEW

    Using
    the data from Chart 5 above, the following table attempts to
    quantify the degree of price correction necessary to return
    the
    valuation ratio in these five real estate markets back to
    the historical average valuation ratio.  The price
    corrections
    necessary to return the valuation ratio to the historical moving
    average
    range from -40% in Vancouver, to -28% in Edmonton.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this table.  

     


     

    Section B
    (charts 5 through 10):
    Canadian Real Estate
    Market Trends, Valuations, and Drivers of Home Prices


     

    Chart 5)
    Growth of Canadian home
    prices in comparison to nominal GDP growth and mortgage credit


    Appreciation in Canadian home prices (from January 2000 onward) has
    more
    closely reflected growth in mortgage credit rather than growth in
    Canadian nominal GDP.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Chart 6)
    Provincial wage growth
    versus home price appreciation:  Vancouver, Calgary,
    Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax – NEW

    Canadian
    wage growth versus home price appreciation from 2001 to 2012 is
    reported below.  Average weekly wage growth per home province
    of each city is reported.  Also, only wages of full time
    workers between the ages of 25 and 54 were examined in an attempt to
    capture changes to the buying power potential of
    first-time-homebuyers.  In all ten markets examined, home
    price appreciation far surpassed
    average weekly wage growth.  The markets with the largest
    difference between wage growth and home price appreciation in
    descending
    order are:   Winnipeg, Vancouver, Montreal, Edmonton,
    Calgary, Ottawa, Toronto, Halifax

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Chart 7)
    Canadian misery index –
    National,
    Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal

    The
    Canadian misery index (inflation + unemployment rate) has been
    climbing since hitting a low at the end of the first quarter
    2008.  Toronto misery is at levels not seen since
    1995.  All three major
    Canadian cities are at or above misery levels similar to those of the
    early 2000s.  Canadian interim misery index (not quarter end
    data)
    indicates that national
    misery is currently just below 10%, last seen at the end of the first
    quarter
    of 2003.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Chart 8)
    Canadian real (inflation
    adjusted) rent index: Calgary,
    Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Montreal,
    Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto

    Canadian
    residential rent increases have not historically kept pace with
    inflation.  While Canadian housing prices have surged higher,
    renting
    has become relatively cheaper.  This is evident from the chart
    below
    indicating long term trend of real-rents (inflation adjusted) has been
    downward in most Canadian cities.  This
    has implications for retirees expecting to utilize
    rental income to finance long term retirement expenditures. 
    As
    with non
    inflation indexed bonds, cash flows from Canadian real estate may prove
    to be ineffective to satisfy future increases in the cost of
    living.  This is in addition to the fact that residential real
    estate
    in Canada already possess low rental yields, or the net annual rental
    income generated from a property dividend by the current market value
    of the property.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Chart 9)
    Canadian real (inflation
    adjusted) home price index: Vancouver,
    Edmonton, Toronto, Calgary,
    Regina, Montreal, Victoria, Winnipeg

    Long
    term real (inflation adjusted) annual home price returns have
    exceeded 3% in Vancouver and Victoria BC, while exceeding 1.5% in
    most other large Canadian cities.  Edmonton is the only
    exception with a
    compounded annual house price appreciation of 0.64% over the examined
    period.  To put this into perspective, numerous examinations
    of long term real
    US home price appreciation
    indicate that they have only slightly exceeded inflation at an
    approximate annual
    compounded rate of 0.5% per year.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


     

    Chart 10)
    Canadian home prices to
    rents: Vancouver, Calgary,
    Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal

    Canadian
    home prices are currently not in line with historic multiples
    of residential rental prices.  Most extended from historical
    norms are
    Vancouver, Montreal, and Toronto.  While Edmonton and Calgary,
    are
    elevated from historic averages but below previous witnessed
    highs.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     


      

    Section C (charts
    11 through 18):
    Canadian Real Estate
    Unemployment, Vacancy Rates,
    and Home Price Growth in Major Canadian
    Cities


     

    The following charts display a time
    series of unemployment, vacancy rates, and quarterly home price changes
    for: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal,
    and Halifax.  

    Chart 11)
    Vancouver unemployment,
    vacancy rates, and home price growth

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 12)
    Edmonton unemployment,
    vacancy rates, and home price growth

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 13)
    Calgary unemployment,
    vacancy rates, and home price growth

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 14) Winnipeg unemployment,
    vacancy rates, and home price growth

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 15) Ottawa unemployment,
    vacancy rates, and home price growth

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 16) Toronto unemployment,
    vacancy rates, and home price growth


    Canadian Real Estate

    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 17) Montreal unemployment,
    vacancy rates, and home price growth

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 18) Halifax unemployment,
    vacancy rates, and home price growth

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Section D
    (charts 19 through 22):
    Canadian and US Real Estate versus Stock Markets (TSX and S&P
    500)


     

    Chart 19) From 1977 – Canadian real
    estate
    versus the TSX index

    Displayed
    in the chart below are Canadian home prices as a ratio of the
    TSX index (Canadian stock market) from 1977.  Seven cities are
    included:
    Vancouver,
    Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Toronto, and Montreal. 
    Over the
    long term, home prices in Canada have
    lagged price appreciation of stocks.  Note, the stock index
    below is a
    “price index” and therefore, excludes payment of dividends.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 20) From 1998 – Canadian real
    estate
    versus the TSX index

    Displayed
    in the chart below are Canadian home prices as a ratio of the
    TSX index (Canadian stock market) from 1998.  Nine cities are
    included:
    Vancouver,
    Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, and
    Halifax.  Over the medium term, home prices in Canada have
    outperformed price appreciation of stocks.  Note, the spike on
    the
    charts observed at March 2009 represent the stock market bottom during
    the financial crisis.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 21) From 1987 – US real
    estate versus the S&P 500 index

    For
    comparison purposes the following two charts (Chart 20 and Chart
    21) have also been
    included which display US home prices as a multiple of the
    S&P 500 (US stock market).  The chart immediately
    below displays US home prices as a ratio of the
    S&P
    500 index (US stock market) from 1987 onward.  Fourteen US
    cities are
    included in the chart below as well as a composite index of ten major
    US Cities.  Over the medium term, home prices in Canada have
    outperformed price appreciation of stocks.  Note, the spike on
    the
    charts observed at March 2009 represent the stock market bottom during
    the financial crisis.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 22) From 1998 – US Real
    Estate versus the S&P 500 Index


    For comparison purposes the following chart and the chart above have
    been included which display US home prices as a multiple of the
    S&P 500 (US stock market).  The chart below displays
    US home prices as a ratio of the S&P
    500 index (US stock market) from 1987 onward.  Fourteen US
    cities are
    included in the chart below as well as a composite index of ten major
    US Cities.  Over the medium term, home prices in Canada have
    outperformed price appreciation of stocks.  Note, the spike on
    the
    charts observed at March 2009 represent the stock market bottom during
    the financial crisis.  

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Section E (charts
    23 through 26):
    US Housing Price Performance vs.  Major Canadian Cities


     

    The following charts indicate relative
    performance of US home prices
    to Canadian home prices in four Canadian markets: Vancouver, Calgary,
    Toronto, and Montreal.  US home prices reflect Canadian
    dollars by
    applying a timely CAD/USD exchange rate to the US home price index.
     

    Chart 23) US Home Prices versus
    Vancouver Home Prices

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 24) US Home Prices versus
    Calgary Home Prices

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 25) US Home Prices versus
    Toronto Home Prices

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 26) US Home Prices versus
    Montreal Home Prices

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Section F
    (charts 27 through 33):
    Price and Sales Pair Volume Change for Major Canadian Cities


     

    The following charts indicate annual
    changes in monthly home prices and “sales pair” volume.  Data
    has been
    generously made available by Teranet – National Bank for: Canada,
    Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax. 
    Please visit http://www.housepriceindex.ca/
    for the definitions and methodologies used
    calculating their indices.  

    Chart 27) Canadian Home Price and
    Sales Volume Change

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 28) Vancouver Home Price and
    Sales Volume Change

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 29) Calgary Home Price and
    Sales Volume Change

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 30) Ottawa Home Price and
    Sales Volume Change

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 31) Toronto Home Price and
    Sales Volume Change

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 32) Montreal Home Price and
    Sales Volume Change

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

     

    Chart 33) Halifax Home Price and
    Sales Volume Change

    Canadian Real Estate
    Click Here to view a larger version of
    this chart
    .  

     

    Pacifica
    Partners – Capital Management

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    a Sea of Opportunity

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    Disclaimer:

    This report is for information purposes only and is neither a
    solicitation for the purchase of securities nor an offer of
    securities.  The information contained in this report has been
    compiled from sources
    we believe to be reliable, however, we make no guarantee,
    representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to such
    information’s accuracy or completeness.  All opinions and
    estimates
    contained in this report, whether or not our own, are based on
    assumptions we believe to be reasonable as of the date of the report
    and are subject to change without notice.  Past performance is
    not
    indicative of future performance.  Please
    note that, as at the date of this report, our firm may hold positions
    in some of the companies mentioned.  Copyright (C) 2012
    Pacifica Partners Inc.  All rights reserved.  


    Investment Counsel Firms in Canada

    Buy
    and Hold Investing: Lessons from Japan

    In
    the 1980s, “Japan Inc.” was a popular term used to describe the
    strength of corporate Japan and the country’s economic
    system.  Volumes
    of books were written on why the Japanese economic system should serve
    as a model for other countries. 


    Click
    here
    for full story.  


    Wealth Management Surrey Fraser Valley

    US Economy – A
    Beacon of Hope

    One
    of the most glaring benefits of weak global equity markets over the
    last year has been the fact that dividends yields are at their most
    attractive levels in nearly 30 years. 


    Click
    here

    for full story.  


    BNN Interview: Demographics

    The
    Politics of Gas Prices

    History
    has shown us that US presidential election cycles too often become
    fixated on a single issue or phrase that defines the
    election.  In the
    1980 election it was Reagan’s “Are you better off than you were four
    years ago?” and in 1992 the Clinton campaign was able to define the
    election around the phrase “It’s the economy stupid.”

    Click here
    for full story.  



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